With the NFL draft just a little over 24 hours away, I have finished a final mock for this year. The Colts and Redskins own the first two picks and with Andrew Luck going to Indianapolis and Robert Griffin III most certainly headed to Washington, the rest of the draft is unpredictable. Minnesota, at pick number three, holds the key to the rest of the draft. Whatever star player they choose can impact every team for the rest of the first round or at least the first half.
The Buffalo Bills select tenth in this years' draft after finishing last year with a 6-10 record. The Bills come into this draft already revamped on the defensive side of the ball with their main additions being DE Mario Williams from Houston and DL Mark Anderson from New England. With those two big bodies standing on the line with Marcell Dareus and Kyle Williams, the pass rush will be much improved. They do however have major needs that need to be filled before any significant steps are made (i.e. Playoffs).
Wide receiver, defensive back, and offensive lineman are the three main needs for the Bills. Wide receiver of all the positions has the deepest class this year. Defensive back and offensive line are still large needs for the Bills though . Offensive line is probably the most important. With Ryan Fitzpatrick receiving a large contract last year, protecting him will be a main priority as the season progresses. Assuring up the left tackle position can really pay dividends to not only Fitzpatrick but the running backs and receivers as well. The defensive backs for the Bills improved this winter without adding anyone at all. The additions of Williams and Anderson in effect make those same backs as last year better. A more efficient pass rush will lead to more arrant throws and turnovers.
Thursday should be a very interesting day for the Bills and the entire league. Nothing is better than watching young men achieve their dreams of playing in the National Football League. This draft may be the most important for the Bills in the latest decade as there is a national buzz that this team hasn't seen in a very long time. With that said, here is my final 2012 first round NFL mock draft.
1. Indianapolis Colts- QB Andrew Luck (Stanford)
*Luck is this year's best player and the release of Peyton Manning assured us that the Colts were ready to move on with Andrew Luck. Owner Jim Irsay loves Luck and will try and have the same success he did with Peyton Manning. On Tuesday the organization confirmed the rumors rather than making us wait until Thursday night, that they were selecting Andrew Luck with the first pick.
2. Washington Redskins- QB Robert Griffin III (Baylor)
*The Redskins did not trade up to the number two spot to draft a tackle. They spent three first round picks to get their guy and that guys is the Heisman trophy winner RG3. Griffin will head into a Mike Shanahan system where he will try and make the Redskins relevant again in the NFC East. Washington has some pieces in place but will need more if they want to give Griffin the best chance to succeed.
3. Minnesota Vikings- OT Matt Kalil (USC)
*With rumors circulating that the Vikings are highly interested in LSU defensive back Morris Claiborne, the draft can be gauged by this pick. Minnesota holds the key to how the first round will play out. Claiborne and Kalil seem to be the only two serious contenders for the number three pick but guys like Justin Blackmon and Trent Richardson can shape the possibilities for the Vikings to trade down. Kalil should be the pick at three however. Having a solid left tackle to protect developing Christian Ponder really would pay dividends to the team going forward.
4. Cleveland Browns- RB Trent Richardson (Alabama)
*The Browns are very weak on the offensive side of the football so they need to get a playmaker that can score touchdowns. They would like to have had the opportunity at RG3 but with him off the board, Colt McCoy's development will continue. They will then turn to the next best available player on the board and that is Alabama running back Trent Richardson. Richardson is a strong, physical, and quick back that can add explosiveness to a lackluster offense in Cleveland.
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers- CB Morris Claiborne (LSU)
*The Bucs would be absolutely thrilled to have Claiborne fall into their lap at five. If Minnesota passes on the star corner, that is what is sure to happen. Claiborne has tremendous ball skills and is poised to create many turnovers at the next level. He is a great cover corner that can play both man-to-man and a bit of zone. Claiborne is one of the best one on one defenders we have seen in the draft in some time. He is a steal at the fifth pick.
6. St. Louis Rams- WR Justin Blackmon (Oklahoma St.)
*The main weakness for the Rams over the past two seasons in the development of Sam Bradford is what they have surrounded him with. Their receiving core is weak to begin with and each year it has been decimated with injuries. They were able to snag Brandon Lloyd from Denver last year to help and now they will have the opportunity to add another big time player at the wide receiver position. Blackmon, at 6'1, 205 lbs doesn't have tremendous size but his physicality and hands will add a weapon for Sam Bradford to add to his arsenal.
7. Jacksonville Jaguars- DT Fletcher Cox (Mississippi St.)
*This pick was a toss up between Cox and Quinton Couples from North Carolina. Both are outstanding players on the defensive line but Cox is going to be the pick here. At 6'4" 298, Cox is rising up most all draft boards. His first team all-SEC selection last year in part due to his league leading 14.5 TFL. What makes Cox stand out here at seven is the fact that he can play at the tackle or end position on the line. He ran a 4.79 40-yard dash at the combine which caught many teams' eye. Cox can make an immediate impact.
8. Miami Dolphins- QB Ryan Tannenhill (Texas A&M)
*Even though I don't believe Tannenhill is the best pick here, it is inevitable that if he is available, the Dolphins will take him. His numbers didn't stand out this past season in a very weak defensive conference in the Big 12 but his talent level and ceiling is through the roof. He will need a year or two to learn and develop his skill set further so Dolphins fans will need to have patience. Miami is in desperate need of a safety so Mark Barron from Alabama is probably the better option but Tannenhill is going to be the pick.
9. Carolina Panthers- CB Stephon Gilmore (South Carolina)
*The Panthers will have the luxury at pick number 9 to choose from 3-4 solid football players. The two front runners are DE Quinton Couples and CB Stephon Gilmore. Both are needs on the defensive side of the ball but with the bountiful amount of receivers in the NFC south, cornerback is the better pick. Gilmore can step into the role of starting corner and vastly improve the Panthers defense who ranked 24th in opponents passing yards in 2011.
10.
Buffalo Bills- SS Mark Barron (Alabama)
*Mark Barron wasn't considered one of the best options for the Bills a few weeks ago but their needs for a defensive back and Barron's outstanding defensive skills will help the Bills in shoring up their defense. This pick wasn't easy to make as there is many players the Bills can choose from, all of which can provide impacts immediately. Chan Gailey really likes the Bama defenders so between Barron and CB Dre Kirkpatrick,
Barron is the better player on the board.
----Other Possibilities----
+ OT Riley Reiff (Iowa): Offensive tackle is one the three main needs for the Bills so Reiff would be a good pick for the Bills if Barron isn't the choice. Reiff's size and strength will help Ryan Fitzpatrick sleep at night knowing his left side if protected.
+ WR Michael Floyd (Notre Dame): Michael Floyd is the most popular choice it seems by fans of the Bills. Floyd will be on the board and would help the Bills add that second receiver to complement Stevie Johnson.
+ LB Luke Keuchly (Boston College): Keuchly may be the best player on the board at this pick. His quickness and athleticism makes him the top linebacker in this year's draft, and a good option for anyone after the top few picks.
11. Kansas City Chiefs- LB Luke Keuchly (Boston College)
*Keuchly doesn't necessarily fill the biggest need for the Chiefs but when a player this solid is on the board with a double digit pick, you can't pass it up. David DeCastro is probably the pick that fills the biggest need at the guard position but Keuchly's potential impact is too strong to pass up.
12. Seattle Seahawks- DE Quinton Couples (North Carolina)
*Couples has fell far enough and won't slip past the Seahawks at number 12. This pick is between Couples and Melvin Ingram. Both are solid players but Couples' can help improve the Seahawks pass rush. He can also play in the middle of the line which adds to his versatility.
13. Arizona Cardinals- OT Riley Reiff (Iowa)
*With the Bills selecting Barron and passing on Reiff, the Cardinals will have him fall into their lap. He was the top OT in the Big 10 this season and his body of work looks promising and transferable into the next level. He is a big tackle at 6'6", 313 that looks to be able to throw his weight around in the NFL. He will be the first player from South Dakota (hometown) selected in the first round since 2006 and the first from his hometown of Parkston (population of 1,508).
14. Dallas Cowboys- CB Dre Kirkpatrick (Alabama)
*I am very high on Bama corner Dre Kirkpatrick. Although Morris Claiborne possesses the better ball skills, Kirkpatrick's talents are very close behind. I have him as the 7th best player in the entire draft. He would help the Cowboys' secondary immensely as they struggled down the stretch last season.
15. Philadelphia Eagles- LB Courtney Upshaw (Alabama)
*Back-to-back Alabama defenders drafted and both in the same division... how ironic. Upshaw is a physical linebacker, but who isn't physical on Alabama? He is very quick for his size at 6'2" 265. His performance in the national title game in January (MVP) pushed him over the top and into the first half of the first round.
16. New York Jets- WR Michael Floyd (Notre Dame)
*Floyd is the best player on the board at the 16th pick. This will provide an instant duo of Santonio Holmes and Floyd for Mark Sanchez to work with. The Jets traded for Tim Tebow during the offseason but they just gave Sanchez a contract extension so they will try and surround him with as many pieces they can for him to succeed.
17. Cincinnati Bengals- DT Michael Brockers (LSU)
*Best player available on the board
18. San Diego Chargers- LB Dont'a Hightower (Alabama)
*Bama's defense was stacked... plain and simple
19. Chicago Bears- DE Chandler Jones (Syracuse)
*Continues to rise fast up draft boards
20. Tennessee Titans- DE Melvin Ingram (South Carolina)
*This is very late for a talent like Ingram to fall. Pieces fell in place for Titans to grab stud at 20
21. Cincinnati Bengals- WR/KR Kendall Wright (Baylor)
*Cornerback is still a major lead but with no stud on the board here they will focus attention to a playmaker in Kendall Wright to go along with A.J. Green.
22. Cleveland Browns- QB Brandon Weeden (Oklahoma St)
*27 going on 28 but it doesn't matter. Arm strength and accuracy are solid and he still has 6-7 solid years ahead of him. Will make huge improvements in Cleveland. New York Yankee to a Cleveland Brown.
23. Detroit Lions- OT Jonathan Martin (Stanford)
*Offensive line is key to continue to keep Matt Stafford away from injuries.
24. Pittsburgh Steelers- G Cordy Glenn (Georgia)
*This pick would be the best player on the board. Glenn also fills a major need at the guard position.
25. Denver Broncos- DT Dontari Poe (Memphis)
*The Broncos would prefer a stud corner here but with Claiborne, Kirkpatrick, and Gilmore gone, they will look for one later in draft. Poe is a big body to occupy the middle of the defensive line.
26. Houston Texans- WR Alshon Jeffery (South Carolina)
*The Texans really have just one solid option for Matt Schaub in Andre Johnson so adding another weapon is key. Jeffery has fell on some boards but I still keep him in the first round.
27. New England Patriots- DE/OLB Shea McClellin (Boise State)
*I believe the Patriots will select a player with this pick or at least use one of their two first round picks. Whether it is this one or the 31, we don't know.
28. Green Bay Packers- DE Nick Perry (USC)
*The defense was still suspect last year as Aaron Rodgers and the potent offense was able to overshadow it until the playoffs. Perry will help along the line and in the pass rush.
29. Baltimore Ravens- C/G Peter Knoz (Wisconsin)
*The team is getting older so adding a center to learn behind a veteran like Matt Birk is the right move for the future.
30. San Francisco 49ers- DT Jerel Worthy (Michigan State)
*They added so much on the offensive side of the ball during the offseason, they could use another piece to the already loaded defense.
31. New England Patriots- DE Whitney Mercilus (Illinois)
*This would be a steal if Mercilus falls this low and almost out of the first round. The Pats would be crazy to trade this pick away if he is available. Great value
32. New York Giants- OT Mike Adams (Ohio State)
*The defensive line is set so it's time for the champs to focus on the other line.
